Did WorkChoices Impact on the NSW Election Results?

By Ben Spies-Butcher and Shaun Wilson

The 2007 NSW election--like the Queensland and Victorian elections before it--produced little overall swing against the incumbent Labor government. All state elections since the Coalition's federal triumph in October 2004, and in the era of WorkChoices, have produced Labor wins.

While the small swing against Victorian Labor seemed to fit the experience of the Bracks government--competent and scandal free--the same could not be said for the small swing against a scandal-prone Beattie government (now in its fourth term), and Morris Iemma's even more scandal-prone government in New South Wales attempting the same.

Why then, have there been small swings against incumbents with troubled records when voters had the opportunity to protest without changing governments? Could a counter-protest--one against WorkChoices--be part of the answer?

With the federal battle drawing nearer, conservative opinion quickly mobilised to explain New South Wales, pointing to incumbency as still key to the results. Initially, the Prime Minister said WorkChoices did not make a difference, citing the anti-Labor swing in Menai in Sydney's south (The West Australian). But leading commentators reluctantly conceded some role.

(Australian Review of Public Affairs)